毕业设计[论文]题目：我国地方政府债务与经济增长一基于Granger因果关系检验的实证研究学院：会计学院专业：会计学姓名：XXX指导教师：杨洪2016年5月14日摘要无论在理论层面还是实证层面，国内外关于政府债务与经济增长之间相关性的研究至今并无定论。结合我国实际情况，本文以我国31个省份1995-2014年18年间地方政府债务与经济增长数据为样本，首先对政府债务和经济增长这两个变量进行单位根检验以确保数据平稳性，在此基础上进行协整检验以判断政府债务和经济增长之间是否存在长期均衡的协整关系。最后，在前两步的基础上对政府债务和经济增长进行了Granger因果关系检验。结果表明：我国地方政府债务和经济增长序列是二阶单整序列，且二者之间可能不存在长期均衡的协整关系。短期来看，地方政府经济增长是地方政府债务的Granger原因，但地方政府债务不是地方政府经济增长的Granger原因：中期来看，地方政府经济增长仍然是地方政府债务的Granger原因且表现更为显著，但地方政府债务不是地方政府经济增长的Granger原因，但相比短期有弱化趋势：长期来看，地方政府经济增长和地方政府债务互为因果关系。根据中国31省份18年真实数据设计实证分析方案，运用计量经济学软件Eviews8进行Granger因果关系检验，是本文可能的创新之处。关键词：政府债：经济增长：单位根检验：协整检验：Granger因果关系检验ABSTRACTIn both the theoretical and empirical levels,both at home and abroad about the research of the relativity between government debt and economic growth is stillinconclusive .combination with the practical situation of China,this article takes ourcountry 3 1 provinces from 1995 to 2014,18(2005,2013,rejecting)local governmentdebt an d economic growth data as samples,at first conduct unit root test on twovariables DEBT and GDP to ensure that data is stationary,and on this basis of unit roottest,we conduct cointegration test to determine whether there is a long-termcointegration relation ship between DEBT and GDP.Finally,on the basis of the firsttwo steps,we conduct Granger causality test on DEBT and GDP.The results show thatthe local government debt and economic growth in China is the second ordersequences who are of single integer.and may not exist long-term cointegrationrelationship between DEBT and GDP.In the short term,the economic growth of localgovernment is the Granger cause of local government debt,but the local governmentdebt is not a Granger cause of economic growth of local government;In the mediumterm,the economic growth of local government is still the Granger cause of localgovernment debt but and is more significant,but the local government debt is notGranger cause of economic growth of local government,but compared with theshort-term,it is weakening;In the long term,economic growth and government debt oflocal government exit Reciprocal causation relationship.According to 18 years realdata of 31 provinces in China,we design empirical scheme and conduct Grangercausality test in using econometric software Eviews8,This is the possible innovationof this article.Key words:Government debt;Economic growth;unit root test;cointegration test;Granger causality test